With Justin Trudeau on the Way Out, Can the Liberal Comeback Hold?

On January 6, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign, triggering one of the most dramatic electoral comebacks in Canadian polling history. What once seemed like an insurmountable Conservative lead has narrowed, with the Liberals surging by 13 percentage points in polling for the popular vote. As a result, the Conservative party’s chance of securing a majority government has plummeted from over 99 per cent to just 28 per cent. While the Conservatives still hold the lead, the momentum is now firmly with the Liberals.

The current saga in Canadian politics draws close parallels to the challenges the US’s Democratic party faced in the lead-up to the 2024 US presidential election. Both Trudeau and former President Joe Biden were lauded as progressive leaders who guided their respective countries through the pandemic but saw their popularity decline as inflation and the cost of living came to dominate the electoral psyche. Under mounting pressure from their parties and the public, both ultimately chose to resign. 

Furthermore, similar to Canada’s Liberal leadership race to replace Trudeau—where central banker Mark Carney has emerged as the frontrunner, triggering a surge in Liberal polling—the Democrats’ decision to swap in then-Vice President Kamala Harris initially provided a polling boost. By mid-September, Harris had a 64 per cent chance of winning in election models. However, on election night in November, Harris’s defeat to Donald Trump in all seven swing states, along with the Democrats’ first popular vote loss in two decades, demonstrated that while polling can be a powerful gauge of public sentiment, it is not necessarily an accurate predictor of election results—raising questions about whether the Liberal party’s recent surge in Canada will translate into actual electoral success.

Trump’s return to the American presidency is yet another reflection of the global trend of right-wing parties ousting progressive incumbents who governed during the pandemic. The rise of nationalist populism in Western countries, mainly resulting from anti-immigrant sentiment and economic anxiety, has facilitated this shift. Just recently, in Germany’s federal election, conservative Christian Democrats and the far-right AfD made huge gains. Similar concerns in Canada have taken hold, especially around the affordability crisis. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives aim to capitalize on this; however, Canada’s unique geopolitical challenges may set it apart from this broader trend, creating an opening for the Liberals to defy expectations.

With the US, Canada’s largest trading partner and closest ally, implementing sweeping 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports and Trump threatening to annex Canada, voters are likely to focus on how a prospective prime minister will fare in a trade war and maintain Canadian sovereignty, rather than domestic economic policy, in the upcoming federal election.

In a head-to-head with Poilievre, voters may favour Carney’s international economic expertise and diplomatic credentials over Poilievre’s primarily domestic political experience. Carney, a Rhodes Scholar with a PhD in economics from the University of  Oxford, navigated Canada through the financial crisis as Governor of the Bank of Canada and has been a vocal advocate for globalization and trade agreements—suggesting he would be better equipped to handle tariff threats and complex negotiations. In contrast, Poilievre, a career politician since age 25, has scant cabinet experience and little exposure to high-stakes international economic policy.

With the upcoming federal election still to be called, much can happen before ballots are cast. When analyzing global trends, it may seem that Poilievre’s Conservatives are destined to notch another win for the global right-wing movement despite strong momentum for the Liberal party. However, given the unique geopolitical challenges faced by Canada, Canadians might favour a globalist who can lead Canada through a trade war and threats to sovereignty over a populist promising to overturn the domestic economy.

Edited by Maisie Minnick

Featured image: “2021.09.03.” by Beauty False is licensed under Public Domain Mark 1.0.